The severe drought is over and more favorable conditions for production are expected in different territories of South America, points out a climate report prepared by PROCISUR for ministers of the Southern Agricultural Council (CAS).

Buenos Aires, 11 March 2024 (IICA) - After the extreme drought that affected the central and southern areas of South America, with severe economic and social consequences in Chile, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, southern Brazil and Argentina, this scenario has changed over the summer, and the El Niño phenomenon is expected to persist during the fall with different impacts on temperatures and rainfall.

This was stated in a report on the climate perspectives for the Southern Cone in the autumn and winter of 2024, prepared by experts from different countries at the request of the Southern Agricultural Council (CAS), a ministerial forum for consultation and coordination of regional actions, made up of the ministers of agriculture from Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay, and where the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA) operates the Technical Secretariat.

The ministers requested this report due to the high frequency of extreme and catastrophic weather events that are occurring in the CAS countries, due to the acceleration of climate change. This scenario has been affecting the yields of agricultural production and the quality of life of the inhabitants of rural areas.

The study, driven by the Cooperative Program for the Agri-Food and Agro-Industrial Technological Development of the Southern Cone (PROCISUR), was prepared by representatives and experts in agriculture and climate from different public agricultural research institutions: the INTA of Argentina, EMBRAPA of Brazil, the INIA of Chile, the MAG of Paraguay and the INIA of Uruguay.

In many regions –the document points out– there only started to be a significant amount of rainfall in January and February, along with more normal levels of water availability in the soil and in the different basins and natural reservoirs after the drought.

The situation, however, is not the same in all areas. In the last three months, there was more rain in southern South America, although different levels of drought have persisted in specific areas of Chile and Argentina bordering the Andes Mountains, the north of the Cuyo region, areas of the Gran Chaco and Mato Grosso of Brazil.

The most internationally relevant scientific-based information indicates that the region is still experiencing atmospheric conditions related to El Niño, a phenomenon that has a 70% chance of persisting during the autumn season in the southern hemisphere.

In this scenario, above-normal rainfall could occur in the Great Plata Basin, which covers the north and center-east of Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and southern Brazil.

“If these perspectives materialize,” the document says, “cultivated pastures and late summer crops are expected to perform well. In natural fields, if suitable rainfall and temperatures above or within normal occur, there could be positive growth in the  autumn.”

The rest of the regions show different perspectives:

- In the Altiplano (northern mountain range of Chile, eastern Bolivia, southern Peru) seasonal forecasts indicate lower-than-normal rainfall for the March, April and May quarter.

 - In Chile, the El Niño phenomenon is still active, although it is clearly declining, which may derive in maximum temperatures above normal from the Arica Region to Los Lagos in the southern area. Lower-than-normal rainfall is expected, which is in fact already happening, since both January and February were characterized by high temperatures and low or even no rainfall.

 - In the North and Northeast of Brazil, records of below-normal precipitation and droughts remain, typical of El Niño, but less intense.

 - In the Gran Chaco, including the Brazilian Pantanal, the occurrence of normal or above-normal rainfall is more likely in the east, and the probability decreases towards the west. This, in tun, increases the availability of water in all agroecosystems, which is crucial to increase the likelihood of collecting rainwater both in natural reservoirs and in cutwaters and dams.

More information:
Institutional Communication Division.
comunicacion.institucional@iica.int